Rohan
Rohan appears to be as clear cut of a case for a flexible response approach as I have seen in Middle Earth. The local groups of Rohirrim already act independently of the central authority to handle smaller scale threats. Only when things get bad would the government get involved and mobilize the rest of the military. The costs relative to the government's resources, weakness of the central authorities and general distrust of the government would mean that mobilization would be a problem. We can assume then that mobilization would have to mean war. Plus it would be a slow process, possibly piecemeal. It would likely also only occur when the threat is big enough to rally the people against and justify the costs.
Through this, we can infer that they will be using a no strike policy. First and second strike options require costly and possibly unpopular adventures outside Rohan's territory. It would be harder for a weak government to maintain troop levels enough to sustain them. It is possible for more limited punitive expeditions aimed at hurting the enemy, but these would be mere pinpricks compared to what is needed in a first or second strike. Those require disabling the enemy war fighting ability beforehand or scaring them into not attacking through painful retaliation. Outside of small localized threats, I do not see these as particularly possible.
This is born out in the official numbers. In the First Battle of the Fords of Isen, only 6,500 soldiers were engaged. In the second, 4,000 to 4,500 were engaged. At most 3,000 were at Helm's Deep. Out of a maximum muster of 12,000. All three of these battles were significantly important to the outcome of the war, and yet Rohan still couldn't get all its forces present when it needed to.
These factors means that the main asset the King has in his arsenal is diplomacy. He can't hide behind a powerful second strike to scare the enemy into backing down. Which means no brinkmanship. But there is a hope of some coercion, just not much. Effective no strike postures allow the threat of a quagmire to deter the enemy invasion. But I suspect that working with the other side would be preferred - meaning a habit of obedience approach.
What is possible for Rohan is small scale, decentralized hit and run attacks that makes conquests and occupations too costly to maintain. They can use hit and run tactics and attempts at defeat in detail. Bog the enemy down so much that they cannot win at any price. Familiarity with the land and Rohan's mounted culture/military makes this quite possible. It also requires the enemy be on Rohan's territory. This makes rallying the people much easier. It is also much easier to sustain relative to full mobilization or an invasion of an outside power. So in this way, it would not be a major threat to any outside power, but would be an extremely difficult place to take.
Essentially this means a pure counter force posture. It is possible that there would be some small scale border actions that can take on a counter value character. But on the main, I suspect that there would be no value targets to hit. After all, the main fighting would be on their home territory. So any "value" targets would be their own assets that would more likely be targeted by the invading enemy while attempting to crush an asymmetric adversary. The only targets that Rohan would be able to hit would be enemy forces. Or their logistics.
When fighting, I suspect a weird mix of scorched earth and low intensity conflict. The mounted infantry and heavy cavalry would mean they are perfect for the sort of border raids and commerce attacks part of a wider campaign of guerrilla actions. But these tend to have high costs to the local population. In order to deny an area to the enemy, scorched earth is a common tactic. Sustaining an army whose resource base is occupied by the enemy would require a higher degree of raiding. The brutalities of the chevauchée is a tactic already used in history by mounted troops to both get supplies for the raiders and deny them to the enemy.
So - would Rohan support the status quo or seek to overthrow it? I think support the status quo honestly. It is surrounded by all friendly powers for the most part. Well, powers it thinks were friendly at least. These provide a buffer against the far more powerful and hostile enemies allied to Mordor. Mordor is in fact seeking to wipe out Rohan and its allies. So supporting the status quo is quite in line with its interests. Then, there is the issue of the power of the allies. They all have significant advantages in terms of numbers, troop quality, territory, and so forth that makes an invasion by Rohan of its neighbors almost impossible to work. Which means preserving the status quo grants it everything it can expect to get out of the international order while seeking to change it risks everything it can expect to lose.
This basically means jumping on the bandwagon. But with who? I would say Gondor and Moria. It certainly has powerful incentives to be on good terms with the neighboring with the elves. They would likely be willing to provide training and arms support to Rohan. But Rohan has two major problems. The first is no real means of defending its borders. The second is a lack of government revenues needed to finance its military. So, while the elvish assistance would be a great help, it does not resolve these fundamental issues.
Gondor is a much stronger power, relies on impressive forts and is between Rohan and its main likely enemies. Which means that becoming the junior partner to Gondor is a very sound move to resolve the first. Gondor's power would essentially prevent the Corsairs and Southrons from getting to Rohan without defeating Gondor first. Mordor and the Easterlings could theoretically hit Rohan by bypassing Gondor. But this would expose their flanks and logistics while attacking Gondor's established ally. So bypassing Gondor here would essentially give Gondor both means and motive to land a powerful blow.
The second is the need for funds. Basically, the Royal Court can downsize its lifestyle all it wants. But one cannot stop paying the Royal Guard if you want them to do their jobs. Military forces in general are expensive - even more so when they are actually used. Especially in defeats but even in war. Rohan's apparent lack of wealth and inability to effectively collect taxes means that it would be hard pressed to finance these things. So how would they get the money they need? Well, the economic hit man model suggests that the dwarves would be salivating at this sort of government. But the Lonely Mountain would be such an established player that Gondor would represent a much bigger return on investment. It would not see much value in Rohan. But Moria is different. It would be needing to regain its position after its reestablishment. Rohan might not be the richest prize, but would be the richest available.
But here is the thing. Rohan's apparent weakness means it seems unlikely that they would pursue any secondary priorities. They simply do not have the means. So long as the people are alive, government in place and there are no threats on the horizon, the government would be happy.
So, there are a lot of powers actually that could strike Rohan. Lothlorien, Mirkwood, Moria, Gondor, the Easterlings, Mordor, Isengard and the Wild Men are all close enough to Rohan that they could attack if they wanted. But as one could guess already, a good number of these don't Gondor has bigger fish to fry and has a long history of working well with Rohan. Rohan is actually Gondor's strongest ally, so no threat there. Both Mirkwood and Lothlorien could conceivably successfully launch decapitation strikes that topple the regime. But there goes a valuable buffer state protecting the elves. All the incentives are for the elves to provide military support to Rohan.
Moria represents a threat to Rohan in that the successful application of the economic hitman model undercuts the domestic monopoly over economic resources. It also is a threat to internal stability. Moria would have pretty high quality troops and a decent number of them. But they would be defeated by the same issues that Isengard will suffer from. So despite their military power, I don't expect them to use it. They essentially would win every battle but still lose the war. I would say that Moria is more of a regional threat to Rohan.
Due to the nature of the economic hitman tactic, Moria is a long term threat. Because of the reluctance to use military force, I would say that Moria would be more of a low intensity threat. The threat Moria poses will expand as its wealth accumulates. But Moria would likely only be a national threat. It would target the whole government, but would not threaten any other nations or demand the organization of a coalition to deal with. But as you could probably already guess, Moria would primarily be an economic threat to Rohan. Possibly also political. But it would primarily be unconventional and non lethal.
Mordor is a significant threat against the survival of the people and territorial integrity of Rohan. Mordor has the highest number of troops of any of Rohan's enemies. But they are some of the worst out there both in terms of skill and equipment. From what I can tell, Mordor would be the most impressively vulnerable to the sort of heavy mounted charge that would be Rohan's main tactic. Mordor has one advantage tactically - no supply lines it appears. Which means the area denial tactics and hit and run tactics would not work, thus forcing Rohan into battle.
Mordor also has precedent and motive for attacking. At the height of his power in 1699 of the Second Age, he occupied what became Rohan. His desire for global conquest never went away. Mordor will never be anything other than a multinational, global threat. Because Mordor is in striking distance of Rohan and its strongest ally, I would say it is a short term, high intensity threat. And it is expanding. Every day that goes by without Mordor's defeat is a day it gets more powerful and thus more likely to win. Mordor, like the Easterlings, is a clear case of a lethal, traditional military threat.
Easterlings would more be a threat to the territorial integrity of Rohan. As I discuss elsewhere, I think that the Easterlings would prioritize the survival of their own people over that of Rohan's and implement policies that essentially mean that is a choice they have to make. But unlike Mordor, genocide does not appear to be the goal of the Easterlings to the same degree. The Easterlings would have a much better army in terms of equipment, skill and tactics. To the point I suspect they would do much better than Mordor against the mounted charge. But they would be much more vulnerable to the hit and run attacks on supply lines.
The ethnic group that the Rohirrim came from were the same group that the Easterlings conquered in Rhovanion. I would imagine that neither side would have forgotten. The Easterlings would want the territory and horses, plus vengeance for their ancient losses. Rohan would not be too happy with a power that once conquered them being resurgent. This is a classic recipe for conflict. But this is easy to overstate. The Easterlings from my analysis want cropland more than any other sort of territory. More land and military victories for their own sake would be desired. But not to the same degree as Gondor's more fertile land would be.
The Easterlings I feel would be primarily global in nature. Their poor economic policies and militarism demand never ending expansion. Though they would be more of a piecemeal regional threat. By this I mean their leadership does not have grand strategic aims of global conquest. They would act as a regional threat as dictated by their need for food and as directed by Mordor until they are totally defeated or conquer the world. This means they would probably be more of a long term but still high intensity threat to Rohan. I would expect the Easterlings threat status to be multinational and remain steady.
Isengard is a threat to all three fixed priorities. The people would be wiped out and territory seized via an invasion that started with direct subversion of the political system. Isengard has a pretty solid combination of troop quality and quantity. Plus the cannons. But they would become victims of the no strike posture. Isengard appears to be a threat more out of its own vulnerabilities than its opportunities. It is short on time and space, so a war of conquest is needed to deal with that. Successful defeat of Rohan would solve so many of Isengard's strategic problems that Rohan would be a tempting target.
Isengard accumulated too many enemies and has too little power to be more than a regional threat even with his global ambitions. But at the same time, the time crunch Saruman worked himself into makes him a pretty short term, high intensity threat. As his army and the pressure Saruman is under grows, so too would be the threat Isengard poses to Rohan. Based on the actions we see in the books and movies, I would think that Isengard is primarily a national threat. His needs do put him on a collision course that threatens many of his neighbors. But he doesn't explicitly demand the conquest of Fanghorn for example. So long as he gets his wood. But from Isengard's perspective, Rohan must be taken. Which makes Isengard a national level threat to Rohan. Isengard threatens Rohan on both political and military grounds. Interestingly, it uses both conventional and unconventional tactics, plus lethal and nonlethal means.
Wild Men I would say are a threat to the people more so than the political order or territory. But that is a bit of skirting the issue. The people can only be victims of so much abuse before they rebel against the government. Thus making the Wild Men an indirect threat to the government. Because of their raids, their destabilization is the product of their economic damage. So they are both economic and political threats. Essentially, on their own, they lack the skill and number to be a military threat.
The Wild Men have their long running hatred of Rohan from being driven from their land and what sounds like acts of genocide. The Wild Men appear pretty regional as a threat - to the point they are at best a low intensity sub national one. But they are ravaging the countryside and need to be dealt with as soon as possible. Due to their support from Isengard, their threat would be expanding. So they would start off as and become more lethal over time, but most likely never be more than an unconventional threat.
Structure
It also appears that there was a degree of anti-authoritarian though that arose. While people were loyal, they disliked the King’s officials due to the fact that any taxation at all would hit hard in a nation with so little. Add in the required self reliance and local populations would struggle to see the utility of the central government. Why should they grant too much when their own local patrols and community was responsible for the most common issues of bandits, orcs and wild men?
Their self reliant culture carries over into warfare as well. Most people became highly skilled riders early. Strong emotional bonds form between horse and rider. Rarely explicitly warlike, the citizens of Rohan constantly had to defend their settlements. There was no assurances that help would come from elsewhere. This meant everyone had practical experience in combat and riding from an early age. Most people lived nomadic or in scattered settlements that made them functionally autonomous even in an absolute monarchy.
Assets
The horses Rohan is famous for are able to reach speeds of 6.7 miles per hours at gallop. They were the source of pride and wealth in the kingdom. Needless to say, the entire culture was based around horses and there was little economic activity above subsistence.
History
So, Rohan used to be a province of Gondor but was granted independence after providing well timed aid to the southern regions when Gondor was being invaded. It is in this pre-independence period that Isengard and Helm’s Deep were built – Rohan has not the economic power or skills needed to build such structures. Since the reinforcements came in the form of cavalry, the horses native to the area were the best suited for combat in Middle Earth and there is little outside this, the area became known as the Realm of the Horse Lords.
Rohan's independence came after Arnor and the Witch-king fell. Which meant that the Easterlings were the main threat to the Free People of Middle Earth. They attacked with enough force that the steward of Gondor was forced to call for aid from the tribes of Northmen. They were not optimistic that aid would arrive. They still asked and still rode to battle anyway, knowing that fighting a "lost" battle was their only hope.
But the king of the closest tribe recognized that if Gondor fell everyone else would too. It just so happened that in the period leading up to this invasion this tribe had become a lot more prosperous and their horse herds had expanded. Which allowed them to act when no one expected them too. A mist that appeared to heal/energize their horses and conceal their movements came out of Lothlorien.
All these factors together allowed them to surprise the orcs fighting with the Easterlings. These orcs were pressing down on Gondor's ranks with enough ferocity that all hope appeared lost. But the Rohirrim came seemingly out of nowhere to attack them from behind, leading to total defeat. The steward of the time naturally was quite happy with this. He recognized the value of the Rohirrim as allies and that they needed more land for their horses if their value was to be retained. So he gave them what became Rohan as a reward. A grateful King Eorl then swore an oath cementing the alliance.
Now, fast forward a bit to the rule of Helm Hammerhand. The wild men had been increasing their raids for a while, somehwat protected by a local lord whose people had begun to interbreed with them. Which is apparently a bad thing in Lord of the Rings. This was also around the time the wild men had taken over Isengard. A fight at the royal court led these factors to come to a head. The Wild Men led a full scale invasion. They defeated the main army of Rohan, took Edoras and trapped Helm and his forces in Helm's Deep.
Helm though was not the sort of man to take this without a fight. Each night he would blow thew huge horn to scare the attacking army. Then, he would spend the entire night sneaking into their camp killing people with his bare hands. This lasted the whole winter. Unfortunately, Helm froze to death shortly before the winter broke. But his nephew was able to lead the small remaining army well enough to break the siege, surprise the forces in Edoras and retake it. Eventually, they starved the Wild Men in Isengard into submission.
Later, there was a bit more of a peaceful period. The next few kings were able to subdue the Wild Men. The orcs of the Misty Mountains became a problem after they lost their war against the dwarves. But they were eventually eliminated as a threat too. Prosperity did eventually return to the realm despite these issues.
Demography and Population
Rohan’s populated regions are very limited indeed – most of the people live in and around Edoras. There is another high density area along the White Mountains. The people mostly appear to live nomadic lives scattered across the rolling grasslands and plains that make up the rest of Rohan. They have a few scattered settlements and a few farmers, but most are nomadic people that work raising Rohan’s famed horses.
Now, a full national muster at the time of the War of the Ring was 12,000. As discussed later, local nobles were expected to on average call on 120 riders. This means that there was around 100 of these local communities. It also means they were on average not very big at all – which is why a population of 1,500 makes Edoras Rohan’s largest “city”. Villages were described as small, isolated and far flung.
The largest army Rohan musters is the 6,000 people of traditional military age and ability. Using similar math to how I got the minimum size for Edoras, I get 162 people per age. This means the entire male population is around 15,049 which them translates to 30,850 total. Then factor in the calculations I used above to figure the number of people needed to work the land to feed a population in these conditions and I get 18,510 farmers. And this is assuming that there are enough farmers in Rohan to produce enough food to feed the entire population. Which is unlikely. So our total population is between 30,850 and 49,360.
Territories
Geographically, Rohan is bounded by the White Mountains to the south. To the west is Isengard and the pass between the White and Misty Mountains. North the border is set near Lothlorien. To the east it is bounded by Mordor’s western mountains. Contained in this is mainly grasslands with many hidden pools and treacherous bogs. The total is 52,763 square miles, described as being roughly a third the size of Gondor. Weather in this area has mild winters and hot summers, similar to eastern Europe. But due to the absence of large bodies of water nearby and the proximity of large mountain ranges mean that there is going to be wide variability within seasons.
The impact of this terrain characterized by rolling grasslands and sparse settlement was it was hard to defend but hard to take. There would not be a lot of strong defensive positions or resources to marshal a strong military. But there was also no real center of power that could form the target of enemy invasions. Unfortunately, the western part of Rohan is where the most strategically important places are. This region is the closest to Isengard. Which means that Edoras and Helm's Deep are easier to take.
Politically, pastoral groups tend to have to wander larger areas to survive. Between groups, environmental boundaries create political ones. Their nomadic lifestyle also creates possible conflicts between the nomads and more settled populations. Economic pressures would come as settlements would extend their fields. The result is poorer nomadic herders would move into the cities. Trading and raiding defined the relationship between the established settlements and nomadic herders. The power of the nomadic cavalry balanced the larger numbers of the urban groups. Attempts to conquer the steppe regions failed until the recent past. The raids of the nomads were able to secure tribute from the urban areas, but rare was total domination. When nomads were able to conquer areas, the control was often short. Apparently, they would settle down and lose their warlike traditions, making them easy to overthrow.
Townsend, Patricia K. (2009). Environmental Anthropology: From Pigs to Policies. United States: Waveland Press. pp. 57–58. ISBN 1-57766-581-3.
McGahey, D.; Davies, J.; Hagelberg, N.; Ouedraogo, R. (2014). Pastoralism and the Green Economy -- a natural nexus?. Nairobi: IUCN and UNEP. pp. x+58. ISBN 978-2-8317-1689-3.
Typically, those areas that are semi-arid to semi- humid areas that are grassy are good for pastoralism. This is where most operations occur which produce beef and dairy. Pastoral farming is more likely to be found in areas with steep slopes, cold strong winds and a wet climate, as all these conditions make it easier to raise animals relative to crops. Raising of sheep is often found in cooler regions with steep hills and above average rain fall. The wetness of the area and incline would make it unsuitable to grow crops. Rohan is located near the intersection of two major mountain ranges, one of which would block the rain coming from the coastal regions not too far way. Thus, we can expect the Southern Fiefs of Gondor to get the rain that would otherwise make it to Rohan. Thus, the semi-arid climate can be expected. This also would make the area hillier and windier than normal.
"Distribution of Farming", British Broadcasting Corporation,
David Christian, A History of Russia, Central Asia and Mongolia, 1998, pp 81-98 and passim
Military
Such poverty led to other important elements of Rohan’s culture. Arms and armor are maintained to the best of the owner’s ability to preserve them as long as possible. These often became heirlooms due to the fact new ones could not be afforded and there was always a need for them.
Their nomadic life also made it easier to mobilize on a short notice. As a society of citizen soldiers, they were ready to fight at all times. Typically they were only in their local communities and only came together when mustered for war. But even in peacetime or during initial attacks, this means that Rohan’s defenses are scattered. No decisive battle could be scored, but small local attacks will bleed the attacker over time as they are forced to march over the entire nation. They would be vulnerable to constant harassing actions over this time. Slow losses in terms of men and morale would result, causing severe problems.
Foreign Relations
Now, Rohan was surrounded by other, infantry-centric potential enemies. Elves, Dwarves, Gondor and the Easterlings all could strike Rohan. While they all have wildly different in their tactics and equipment, they are primarily infantry based militaries. This is important – War fighting will be based on what a nation has experience with and what they expect to fight in the future. Rohan is extremely lucky in this regard. It certainly would not expect to fight Isengard – but Isengard is a heavy infantry based army. This means they would already be prepared to fight that sort of enemy.
Invasions by Mongolian units were also quite good at propaganda as well. Messengers would go ahead of the army to spread reports to dissidents that the invaders were sympathetic to their cause. But the most famous tactic on this front deals with inducing both commanders to defect and cities to surrender. Should one give in before battle, they would be spared or even rewarded for doing so. However, those that resisted in a way that inflicted losses on the Mongol army would see merciless brutality. Sometimes the heads of those that resisted would be piled up in sight of the walls of their next target. All it took was one surrender in an area and the realization that the Mongols actually kept their word on this, and surrenders spread like wildfire.
This had an important effect – auxiliary troops. Cavalry are not the most effective at sieges due to the higher food requirements of mounted troops. Defections of commanders with infantry units would be incorporated into the Mongol army and actually provided the bulk of their foot troops. The Mongols used these auxiliary troops for garrison duty, guarding important mountain passes and siege equipment. This then allows for much better combined arms tactics – at least for the duration of the campaign. Rohan seems to struggle to administer its own territory, so it seems unlikely that it would hold on to lands and units after the war.
This last point is important. It would mean that peace settlements would probably be based on reparations for the costs of the war, otherwise even limited war would cause bankruptcy of the government. But these would be limited, as there is much less in Rohan to need rebuilding. But instead of outright conquest, buffer and demilitarized zones would probably be demanded to ensure that no future aggression is attempted.
But it also seems likely that there would be no shame in Rohan in borrowing the techniques and people needed to administer their lands – just like the Mongols did. Defectors might be given government jobs after the war. Those that defected to the Mongols were often left in their old posts. The troops would also be essential for ruling – empires can be conquered in the saddle but not ruled from the saddle.
Agriculture & Industry
So, there was some limited farming. But not much. The Weapons and Warfare book states that clothing uses flax, so we can assume that is one of the crops produced in these farms. Grains were also mentioned, specifically wheat. These conditions are what we would expect from a real life society similar to Rohan.
Remember the likelihood of the eagles living off the animals of Rohan? Well, that would have profound impacts on Rohan. Granted, the eagles would not exclusively rely on Rohan. After all, they can hunt around the Lonely Mountain and both sides of the Misty and White Mountains. This means that Gondor and the region between the Misty Mountains and the Shire could provide hunting grounds and livestock. Wild animals, trolls and orc could also provide food for them. But let’s be honest here. Rohan is positioned to be overlapped by the highest density of eagle hunting grounds. As stated above, Rohan prizes it horses, and the eagles would probably love to enjoy those same horses as a meal. Plus, there is the fact that it is highly unlikely that a society can survive off raising nothing but horses. The same skills that allow them to be good at raising horses would lend themselves to raising sheep and cattle. Then, the most important for our purposes here, the provision of meat to eagles can help secure a military alliance that would grant Rohan devastating air superiority.
All of this together would mean Rohan would most likely be a more fully diversified pastoralist society. This sort of society is based on the nomadic raising of livestock. This is opposed to the stationary raising of livestock where crops are produced for food or strictly crop production. The basic idea is the people would wander from area to area based on the availability of water and food. Tribes are the normal unit of social organization and property rights are attached to lineages. One interesting thing about pastoral societies is they will sometimes use fire to burn away tree and shrub growth to protect grazing land. Higher quality grass results from this which in turn can preserve higher biodiversity.
Moran, Emilio F. (2006). People and Nature: An Introduction to Human Ecological Relations. Malden, Massachusetts: Blackwell Publishing. p. 52. ISBN 978-1-4051-0572-9.
(Bates, 1998:105)
These societies often are in land too marginal for crop production. Forage for herds requires less ideal growing conditions than full scale crop production. As a result, clothing is based off wool and leather products. Food is similarly based on meat and milk products. Trade was common to gain other products that allow for a more balanced diet. Because of this, high mobility and communications are common, but population density is low. Small scale farming is possible, but hunting, foraging and fishing also supplement the diet. Often, cycles are followed with the same areas being visited at the same time every year. Sometimes these routes would range between 111.85 and 124.3 miles. Semi-permanent camp sites are set up at one of the stops. Tents are used the rest of the time. The mental maps of their territory and the understanding of seasonal climate variations were well developed in pastoral societies.
Beck, Lois (1991) "Nomad: a year in the life of nomadic Qashqa'i tribesman in Iran" (University of California Press)
But this is not to say that they are poor – studies have shown that per unit of land, pastoral societies can produce 2 to 10 times the amount of more capital-intensive methods. This is partly due to the fact it is possible to use “extensive” methods that cover large areas but have little in terms of labor to manage it – thus are quite cheap. The full heights of wealth that people today are used to in the West require agriculture and tax systems to support urban centers and super rich elites. The result is that pastoral societies are not exactly rich, but not poor. They also tend to be more egalitarian than more urban and agricultural societies.
Education
History was told orally and depicted in tapestries as there was no tradition of written history and very little formalized education.
Type
Geopolitical, Kingdom
Capital
Government System
Monarchy, Absolute
Power Structure
Confederation
Economic System
Traditional
Major Imports
Metal was the main import and mainly from Gondor. Rohan mined virtually no metal itself. So it traded horses to get all the metal it needed. Thus metal was used sparingly. Weapons and armor were thus well cared for to reduce demand for scarce metal.
Location
Controlled Territories
Related Ethnicities
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