Moria

Moria was considered the greatest of the Dwarven Kingdoms. Now, one thing that needs to be taken into account here. It was incredibly wealthy. But in the narrative that I will be explaining and justifying in another article, it is essentially a new nation entering the scene. So we need to look into how such a power would act. We actually have a real world example of this that Tolkien would be familiar with - the German Second Reich.   The Second Reich was the German state created by the Wars of German Unification. It was controlled by the Prussian Hohenzollern family. At the height of the Second Reich, it became an economic powerhouse due to its leading role in the Second Industrial Revolution. This was defined by the switch from coal to oil and the development of the chemical industry and motor vehicles. Once German Unification was completed and this industrial development hit what the elites felt was the limits of domestic growth, Kaiser Wilhelm II started to push for a more international orientation. This meant two things - African colonies and a strong enough navy to allow for this.   The result was major international destabilization. Britain was naturally fearful that German naval developments threatened its security. Germany naturally felt that a strong navy was essential for being taken seriously on the international stage thus did not want to back down. But England is an island nation thus its navy was its first and most important line of defense. So reliant on the navy that it had an incredibly small army for the day. It was also reliant on secure sea trade for its prosperity and food supplies.   Then there is the fact that by this point the Scramble for Africa was mostly complete. Few colonies were available for the taking. Thus it needed alternatives. Major investments in the Ottoman Empire (such as the Berlin to Baghdad Railroad) resulted. This provoked fear in Russia, who felt it needed to take Constantinople for its own trade and security interests.   Italy followed a similar, but more explicitly nationalistic version that can be instructive for us. Its unification occurred roughly the same time. It too looked for colonies as a tool to be taken seriously. Hence its invasion of Libya. But it appears to be much more concerned with irredentist concerns than was Germany. It never really gave up on getting control over the mainly Italian speaking areas of the Austrian Empire. It "broke" its treaty obligations and sided with the Entente powers to get those regions. When it failed to get them in the peace settlement, Fascism rose and Italy sided with the Axis in World War Two. Like in World War One, Italy invaded the Balkans to get those regions.   Now, as stated above, Moria was well placed to come on the scene with incredible wealth. Immigration would probably see a huge rise in population after it is firmly established. Like in the earlier history, this would allow for the economic growth to be sustained. But this also means soldiers and with it military power. We also have to remember that all of the Misty Mountains were claimed by the dwarves as part of Moria. This is especially true for Gondobad Mountain - a sacred site also occupied by orcs. This would push for expansionism in the same way that Italy wished to expand. Moria's past glory and desires to regain its power are similar to both Germany and Italy. Germany is similar in the need to expand for economic reasons. Not that expansion is technically needed, but the elites will think it is.   Then, there is the limited available places to expand to. Like I discuss in the Lonely Mountain section, it would have a lock down on Gondor and the Easterlings. The Shire would probably not be of much interest due to low levels of development until Lotho Sackville-Baggins makes his play. There is virtually nothing between the Misty Mountains and the Shire. Bree would probably have relations between both the Blue Mountains and Moria, serving as a vital trade link between them. While this makes it important, this does not mean high profits itself. Other means would be needed.   This would likely mean Rohan. Moria would see significant potential in the Glittering Caves - part of Rohan's territory. Just as the Lonely Mountain uses its influence to get mining rights in the White Mountains through concessions from Gondor, Moria would see Rohan as its vehicle to do the same. Like the real world colonial expansions of Italy and Germany, Moria would be forced to take what is essentially the leftovers not taken by more established powers. Due to the meat based diet of the dwarves, Moria would probably be keen to exploit the same meat production assets of Rohan that makes Rohan of interest to the eagles. Thus, animal products and mineral rights would be exchanged for Moria's financial assistance.   All of this to say that while most other nations would be deciding whether to bandwagon or balance against a rising power, Moria would count as one of those rising powers. It seems that Lothlorien would be the main force that seeks to balance against Moria. As would the Ents. Both due to the fact that the dwarves would need wood to fuel their industry. The elves live in the woods while the ents literally are the trees. The ents went to war to stop Isengard's deforestation. But Fanghorn is much further away than Lothlorien and they take much more abuse before they mobilize. So Lothorient would probably be a more short or medium term threat. The ents would be longer term. Ents are at the extreme end of quality over quantity of their military forces. Elves too skew towards this end of the spectrum, but not to the same extreme. Their main advantage is their abnormal skill in archery. But at first, Mirkwood, Lothlorien and Fanghorn would be the only regions with both the means and motive to attack. The ents are also declining - so apply the same logic to them.   Taken together, the elves would probably be more lethal but unconventional. This is due to the fact I highly doubt any of the elven domains would be stupid enough to attempt a direct assault on Moria. But they would take a no strike defensive posture in cases of dwarven incursions. But the use of slavery by dwarves provides a good entry point for covert actions to subvert from within. I would think that the elven domains would remain relatively steady as long as Moria exists. We have to remember that the elves are leaving Middle Earth. This would suggest they are receding. But the dwarves are also slowly going extinct. I am not sure what the relative trends are to compare which population is declining faster, but both are declining. Elves and ents would represent the national threats. The slave revolts remain the consistent subnational threat. The more purely economic threats like the ents blocking access to raw materials would probably be more nonlethal. But should any of them become more aggressive, they would be more traditional and lethal.   Now, how would Moria itself behave? Well, first I would suspect they would try to counter the power of the elven domains of Mirkwood and Lothlorien. While Lothlorien is much closer, Mirkwood is still not that far and seemingly unoccupied. The southern reaches of Mirkwood have no elves, but Sauron covertly set up shop in that region. So it is relatively undefended. Once he is defeated, the Mirkwood Elves would be interested in reasserting their power and protecting their homes. But, as stated, their influence there would require Sauron being defeated. Thus Mirkwood would be another medium term rival. Like the ents and Lothlorien, Mirkwood would be of regional interest to Moria.   Mordor would probably be the big threat it wishes to see defeated. Sauron is the leader occupying a potential large source of raw materials. Geographic distance keeps Mordor from being a direct threat at first. But the ambitions of Sauron cannot be met without the eventual conquest of Moria. We can tell that Moria serving as a covert base for Sauron during Moria's dark days that Sauron would seek it out for strategic reasons. Nor would the dwarves forget the orc raids that he unleashed on Moria in Moria's golden age. Then, Mordor is not interested in trade or profit seeking. So the economic interests of Moria are directly threatened by the expansion of Mordor. Mordor is also a threat primarily due to the sheer volume of troops it can throw at conquest. Orcs suck individually, but make up for it in terms of raw numbers. Mordor, as always, counts as a global threat to Moria.   Saruman was also a major threat to Moria. His manufacturing potential could undermine Moria's export markets. Similarly, Isengard would need raw materials for itself, potentially threatening Moria's access to the same materials. This would place Isengard as a short/medium term economic threat. Its invasion of Rohan makes it a military threat as well. Eventually, Isengard would be a long term, direct military threat to Moria itself. After all, Moria would prove to be a rich source of iron that Isengard's foundries would crave. Isengard would also have the best middle ground in terms of military forces. Uruk hai are of lower quality than either the dwarves or elves, but they are much better than normal orcs and humans. They are also much more numerous than elves after Isengard's breeding program. Saruman would be a more regional concern for them.   But both Isengard and Mordor would be expanding threats. Mordor and Isengard would count as the multinational threats. Mordor and Isengard would both be conventional and lethal - highly lethal. Interestingly, most or all of these threats would be high intensity as all would come into conflict with Moria over fundamental interests. Similarly, this would make them relatively high intensity.   But there is one realm that could technically prove to be a problem but surprisingly probably actually be an ally. Rivendell. We have to remember that Elrond still ruled the Rivendell - 4342 years after the destruction of his old home. Prior to the founding of Rivendell, he was part of the group of elves that formed close political and cultural friendships with Moria. When the war broke out that turned him and those with him into refugees, it was Moria that faught honorably to help his people. Moria joined in the Last Alliance along side him again. When Moria fell, it was likely a profound personal loss to him. Hence why he seems more willing than the head of Mirkwood to help the Dwarves in the Hobbit book/movies.   Then, unlike the rest of the elven kingdoms, the dwarven realms would not be a threat to Rivendell. Rivendell is a normal city. It not underground like the dwarves, nor in trees like the rest of the elves. This means that no population growth or need for resources by Moria would create tensions between the two. Their respective positions in the Misty Mountains means that political and economic coordination could lead to renewed prosperity. After all, they both have great power via control over trade routes through the mountains.   But more importantly, Moria is a major threat to Rivendell prior to the dwarves retaking it. The only reason the balrog does not strike any where else is because it has neither the desire to nor has been forced to. Should Sauron be able to compel action, it would seem that a powerful elven kingdom would be a tempting target for a first strike. Beyond that, it is a hotbed of orc and troll activity - which is getting worse and will continue to do so. As this happens, mithril becomes increasingly difficult to remove from Mordor's control. So, Elrond has a strong incentive to see the dwarves retake Moria and remain there.