Harad

Harad is a rather unpleasant place to live. Near Harad gets its name from being near Gondor.   This region was colonized by Numenor. Apparently the natives needed to be taught how to be civilized. At first, they befriended the locals and taught them a decent amount about crafting and farming. But this changed over time. They began to conduct raids on the region to get slaves and sacrifice victims. Great tribute was extracted from the Southrons via Umbar. The Black Numenoreans that survived the destruction of their island home then set up their own realm in exile in Umbar that came to rule the Southrons. At first, the region's inhabitants were not hostile to Gondor, though not too friendly either. this too evolved over time to long lasting rivalries. Eventually they allied with the Easterlings and Mordor.   In the fighting that resulted, some of Harad was controlled by Gondor at its height. But after the Kin Strife, the whole area became functionally independent and under Black Numenorean/Sauron's control. Near Harad remained a frequent area for border skirmishes and raids between Gondor and the Southrons. These Black Numenoreans eventually interbred so much that they became the same ethnic group. They became one of the main proxies Mordor used in his war against Gondor. Many invasions from Harad came close to delivering a knock out blow but couldn't for various reasons. Yet they still filled an important role. Gondor was forced on the defensive and thus could not go on the sort of offensive actions that could be a serious threat to Mordor.   So, one thing I feel needs to be covered is based on their history. Yes, they are a tribal society. But they were colonized by the Black Numenoreans/Kings Men. They were much more familiar with how to conduct military operations. Which means that the changes induced by Shaka in Zulu society could be replicated by this Numenorean influence. Shaka's changes came about due to one man taking power and instituting changes. He then took over neighboring tribes and consolidated control over his area. There were some groups that were displaced from their territory but adopted the same tactics after their defeats. Which allowed them to resettle in areas whose original inhabitants were used to the old ways of fighting. The result is similar to the processes unleashed by the Mongols and Huns leading to the Barbarian invasions that defeated the Western Roman Empire.   So this process took around 150 years. It was eventually stopped by European colonization. Yet the Haradrim were not totally unified after thousands of years. How would this gap occur? Well, I would suspect a power vacuum. We can see what happened with Alexander the Great's empire. After his death, it fragmented into many kingdoms that waged seemingly endless wars with each other. The Warring States periods in China and Japan could also provide a similar model. Essentially, the tribal groups of the Hardrim would not form a united power base for the King's Men. Nor would they have any domestic leadership after their government and top military leaders were wiped out after the failed attack on the Valar. So the tribes with the best combination of men, material and leaders would slowly conquer the weaker and less skillfully led. The fact that there was many power centers all at war with each other, no centralized control or anyone with a massive initial advantage would lead to the process taking much longer.   On one hand, there would possibly be some cities along the river leading to Umbar that would lead to Egyptian like civilization. Which means some farming and pressures leading to the transition away from tribal lifestyles. But there is a slight problem from the perspective of the Haradrim. This would be the prime farmland in a mainly desert area. Where the main urban area already set up is Umbar - ruled by the corsairs. Who then use the tribute and slaves they get in raids to then set up their plantations. So the colonization by Numenor and the activities of the corsairs would leave the river here as the basis of their plantations. Which then means there would be little left for the populations of Haradrim.   So, there are two major problems facing Southron society. The first is they are nomadic. As I discussed in my commentary on Rohan, that does not require that they be poor. But the sedentary lifestyles of cultures like Gondor and the Easterlings are required for two things that allow for economic development. These are farming and urbanization. These allow massive food surpluses to arise and people specializing in crafting and trading. All of these push wealth creation beyond the limits of what can be created without them.   The second is the natural environment appears to be a major limiting factor. Jungles surprisingly do not have great soils, limiting long term farming. Deserts are notorious for their poor soil and completely unsuitable rainfall. It also appears that there is a lack of metal and stone needed for urbanization and crafting. But it is unclear to me whether it is not there or not accessible. After all, it is hard to run long term mining without farms and cities. Which, as stated above, the capacity for this region to support these seems limited. Now, there were cities that formed in similar conditions in Africa, but it appears that these were in North Africa (like Alexandria). Or they were built after the Middle Ages, which is the time period we are looking at.   This seems to me to suggest that economic prosperity would be a powerful secondary priority. Anything that would assure long term access to food and water would be beneficial to the Southrons. By the same logic, external stability would not be. This would see the tribes potentially lose access to those same resources. Which means that they would be willing to fight and kill each other for the sake of obtaining more land/food/water/other resource needed. All that is needed is enough of a need for those resources and a tempting enough opportunity. Meanwhile, those on the edge probably would not see ideology get in the way of their quest for food.   Now, there are several threats to the people of Harad. The most obvious would be themselves. Any force looking to move into this region could just use divide and conquer tactics to support useful local proxies. But this seems unlikely for our purposes. Mordor, Gondor and Umbar would be much bigger threats. Primarily because geography limits the power of all other states from even getting there, thus these three are the only ones with the option to attack.   Mordor appears to be primarily a threat to territorial integrity. Useful troops would be highly beneficial to Mordor, so it is unlikely that Mordor would pose a threat to anything but the sovereignty of the local elites. Interestingly to me is that Mordor might actually increase internal stability. In order to get more troops and get a single army out of Harad, the region would have to become more united. Yes, the local elites would naturally decline in power, but the internal stability would increase.   Mordor for once appears to be better in terms of both quality and quantity of forces. Yes, Southrons are impressive natural warriors. But this is from cultural factors. Orcs have better equipment and are much more effective physically. Both sides would have similar levels of training and experience. So I would say that Mordor is by far the superior force. Hence why it makes sense to bandwagon. Essentially, I see Mordor as the only power that can conquer the whole area of Harad if it wanted.   I see no historical precedent for Mordor to attack Harad directly. Nor does there appear to be any motive. Especially since the local people have a record of obedience without threats of force. But should rebellion occur, Mordor would most certainly send in the troops. Disobedience does appear to be a major motive for aggression. The War of Sauron and Elves is a good example of this. So while there is the potential to attack, it is unlikely. However, it is also the only global threat - in that it wants to conquer the world, restructure the international order and has the sort of power demanding a major international coalition. All others have much more regional power and objectives.   Mordor is a short term threat in the sense that it needs to secure its interests in Harad prior to moving elsewhere. But it is pretty high intensity. Should that attack come, all of Harad's power will be needed in the struggle. And this will only get worse as orcs and trolls are continuously bred and other potential allies are defeated in battle. Thus it is the strongest military threat. One can also make a claim that Mordor, through its use of the Rings of Power, terror and mind control, effectively it attacks and gained control via primarily political means. This makes it a national level threat. But also the most unconventional. Though it also has the potential to be the most conventional and lethal.   Gondor is a major threat to the territorial integrity. Gondor wishes to conquer the region in part to stop the attacks from the Southrons and Corsairs. It does have significant military power in terms of the fortifications, equipment, training and the doctrines used. Raiders would struggle against a force reliant on heavy infantry, cavalry and castles. But the Haradrim army sent to invade Gondor is roughly the size as Gondor's professional army - if we take the lower numbers. Plus they have glorified war elephants.   In balance, it appears that neither is able to win because one is strong where the other is weak and vice versa. Nor does either power have what it takes to hammer the exposed weak points hard enough to achieve much past tactical victories. To me, Gondor can make slow but costly progress in conquest if it effectively uses bite and hold. It can attack, but no single campaign would lead to strategic defeat. Because of this Gondor is a more long term, high intensity threat. But ultimately it is a national, lethal and conventional threat.   Now, Gondor has a long history of invading the area. It controlled a substantial part of the area for a long period. Haradrim attacks have left an impression that the people are a threat to them. Like with the Corsairs, there would be a natural temptation to strike to eliminate the threat before the Haradrim get too strong. Gondor's weakness and growing vulnerability to the Corsairs and Mordor could lead to this strike sooner than later. The defeat of the weakest part of the coalition could keep one part from becoming a threat later and make it harder for Mordor and Umbar to unify and coordinate their forces. These mean that Gondor is likely to be an expanding military threat, limited by its power. Which as we see over the course of the story, goes from its low point to a new golden age.   Umbar is almost the exact opposite here. Through its slave raiding it is a threat to the survival of the people itself. Some of the tribes would cooperate in the trade and benefit, while others would naturally be the tribes most exploited. Which essentially is an application of divide and conquer that naturally threatens internal stability. Umbar's ability to attack would be limited by the fact its primarily a naval power. So it can do huge amounts of damage within reach of the coast or their river bases. But that is about it.   At the same time, it is a sub national, economic threat. Its slaving and domination of the prime farmland in Harad means that the people cannot economically advance. But it does not want to conquer the area. Those that work with the corsairs also see their power increase.   Now, Umbar does not have a precedent for attacking Harad in major military operations when not controlled by Gondor. It does have motive for smaller attacks in the form of slave raids. It does have vulnerabilities that could produce aggression. Should the neighboring tribes become hostile, Corsair plantations would be exposed. They have the major limiting factor in their reach. Meaning that especially around their relatively unguarded plantations, their military activities might be based on Launch on Warning ideas. Essentially, a perception of time constraints might lead the Corsairs to attack when they get warnings of approaching attacks, which would lead to preemptive attacks.   Umbar is a short term threat. But also thankfully low intensity. It can be much more easily pressured into compliance through attacks that hurt its profits, and its reach is much more limited. Also luckily it is remaining steady from what I can tell. There is nothing that suggests its military power or ambitions are increasing. Also nothing reducing these either. It is not political, in that it seeks cooperation with or corruption of the political elites more than subversion of them. Lastly, Umbar is Harad's only real, sub national, lethal and unconventional threat.