Great Eagles

Now a physical description is pretty easy. Their big. And their eagles. My research suggests they are inspired by golden eagles.   Flight speeds can reach 32 miles per hour in normal conditions, but go up to 120 miles per hour gliding. Dives can reach up to 200 miles per hour. This makes them one of the two fastest animals alive. Their beaks and legs are quite powerful as well – all of these together add up to a type of bird often the apex predator. The estimates show that eagles are able to lift up to 7-8 times their weight – though the average seems to be closer to 3 times their weight. Golden eagles average around 10 pounds and 7 foot wingspans.   What I was able to find about the Lord of the Rings Great Eagles is that they are estimated at possibly over 100 feet from tip to tip. Scaling this up based on real golden eagles, this means they can weigh about 143 pounds. This then means average lift weight of 428.6 pounds and a maximum one of 1,143 pounds. These numbers will cause anyone to run in fear if they were to show up given the tactics I think fit them. More on that later though.   They also have very low population densities of between 7 and 77 sq. miles. Because of the extra size of the Middle Earth variant, we can assume the larger number is more applicable for our purposes here. Measuring out from the Atlas, there is about 360,000 sq. miles of mountain ranges in Middle Earth between the White Mountains and the Misty Mountains. This means that an upper population size of 4,676. That seems plausible to me at least. If we assume the 1% to 10% range for human armies, we get 468 and 47 eagles. This is consistent with what is seen in the books and movies, where at the Battle of Five Armies “several hundred” eagles were present in the books and 80 in the movies. 6 were present at the Black Gate in both versions. 12 eagles rescued Thorin’s crew in the Hobbit while only one retrieved Gandalf in the Fellowship.   At a tactical level there is the possibility for a wide variety of tactics. These are dive, toss, skip and bounce bombing. Now, why would they use these tactics rather than normal horizontal bombing en masse? Namely accuracy. The eagles would not risk themselves for no reason, thus would make sure they would hit something. However, the bomb trajectories from normal bombing runs are incredibly hard to predict, so only mass formations would be able to hit targets. This is why cities were the normal targets for bombing runs. Basically you would only want to use this method if you want to throw massive amounts of ordinance at a single target, wipe out everything near by, kill any civilians in the area, and no assurances that what you were actually aiming for would be destroyed. Add in the fact that the accuracy problem makes using this tactic in close proximity to friendly troops likely to result in friendly fire and most battles in Lord of the Rings would meet this condition. Add in the fact that any anti aircraft technology would not exist, which area bombing was a response to. Thus there is no reason at all to sacrifice accuracy.   Dive bombing is exactly what you would expect it to be – the bomber would engage in a high angle dive (normally around 60 degrees but sometimes up to 80), release their payload close to the target then pull up hard. By basically going perpendicular to the ground, one gets rid of the weirdness of bomb trajectories from normal flight – the bomb just goes straight down. This is something the eagles would be quite capable of pulling off due to its similarity to their normal hunting patterns. The scary thing is that if our eagle was carrying close to our maximum load, they would be close to what dive bombers of WW2 actually carried. Granted, this is a big rock and not a bomb, but at the end of Lord of the Rings that is no longer any comfort to people.   Dive bombing has one major downside in the sort of combat the eagles can be expected to engage in. Siege engines are perfect targets as they are easy to see but hard for the enemy to move out of the way. Troops however are much more mobile and common. Not to mention the fact that a rock dropped straight down would not kill many troops even if it was a direct hit. Perhaps it is possible to use a stone more likely to fragment on impact, but the resulting shrapnel would be much less effective than say the sort of rounds I discuss in relation to Isengard's artillery. Therefore, the eagles can dive bomb all the enemy siege equipment and still have a decent army to deal with – a particularly bad problem given the fact that siege engines are unlikely to be able to get to their nesting areas.   A more effective move would be skip bombing. Here, the attacker flies at very low altitudes (200–250 feet) and would release between two to four bombs, usually 500 to 100 pounds preferably equipped with four- to five-second time delay fuzes. The bombs would "skip" over the surface of the water in a manner similar to stone skipping and either bounce into the side of the ship and detonate, submerge and explode next to the ship, or bounce over the target and miss. A similar technique was mast-height bombing, in which bombers would approach the target at low altitude, 200 to 500 feet and then drop down to mast height, 10 to 15 feet at about 600 yards from the target. They would release their bombs at around 300 yards, aiming directly at the side of the ship. In practice, the techniques were often combined: a bomber would drop two bombs, skipping the first and launching the second at mast height.   Remember the size ranges we are talking about here. These numbers mean that the low end of what real life WW2 era bombers actually used is perfectly in line with what we can expect the eagles to be able to carry. This means that the eagles can use the same sized ordinance in their attack runs and probably would be able to do literal stone skipping. Split their payload into two smaller stones – one in each talon – and they can use the combination mast and skip bombing. When you have eagles able to sit on their perches and see the enemy moving in, they would be able to mobilize a few eagles to attack the enemy in transit. Marching troops tend to operate in columns, which would be perfect for attack runs like this. Granted, doing this on ground would not be near as effective as over water, but the stones can be expected to skip enough to do serious damage. Even if this is not able to kill troops on large scales, it can destroy bridges like the ones critical for Mordor’s forces to get to Minas Tirith. We actually have documented cases of cannon balls skipping down the battlefields in similar manners. Water sees longer ranges, but land is still good enough for skip bombing to cause serious problems.   The last one is toss bombing. Now, this one is a much harder technique to pull off but the best one for hitting hardened targets. Dive bombing would see the eagle diving towards a fortified area where there is likely to be towers and such that allow for more effective fire against them. The walls would protect the interior of the forts from skip bombing. Even if you take down the wall, there is still a pile of debris troops would have to climb over. The fact that destroying the walls made getting in possible but still quite difficult, it was rarely done. It was actually much easier just to climb over the still standing wall and take the gatehouse. Toss bombing avoids both of these issues by keeping the eagle outside the fort but still able to bypass the walls.   What is toss bombing? The attacker pulls upward when releasing its bomb load, giving the bomb additional time of flight by starting its ballistic path with an upward vector. The purpose of toss bombing is to compensate for the gravity drop of the bomb in flight, and allow the bomber to bomb a target without flying directly over it. This is in order to avoid overflying a heavily defended target, or in order to distance the attacking aircraft from the blast effects of a nuclear (or conventional) bomb. Pop-up bombing is the variant most likely to be used by eagles attacking forts, where they would approach from low altitude in level flight and pull up at the last moment to release the bomb. Release usually occurs between 20° and 75° above the horizontal, causing the bomb to be tossed upward and forward, much like an underarm throw of a ball.   Keep in mind that the longest bow range in Lord of the Rings is 350 yards. That is pretty low for a bomb run. Keep in mind that is only 10 times the wing span of these eagles. It is safe to assume they are quite able to do most if not all of these bombing runs completely safe. The impact of this is the idea developed before WW2 of “the bomber will always get through”. This basically meant that while losses will occur, they will be too small to prevent the missions from being successful. Such a reality means that logistics will be completely exposed. All transportation of supplies and large numbers of troops will be difficult for those hostile to the eagles to pull off. Camping will be one of the only times area bombing would be used and would be devastating – possibly the one case where whole armies could be completely destroyed at once. Commanders often have better tents and can be easily distinguished. Thus, a well timed dive bomb on an unsuspecting enemy can kill the commander in their tent followed by area bombing. Decapitation strikes can also be effective using dive bombing of palaces and headquarters. Long story short, the industrial base and logistics are all vulnerable, as are command, control and communications. I would hate to go up against an enemy that has air supremacy.   These factors put together and I see a pattern that can shed some light on their Middle Earth political outlook. Politically this seems to be a classic case of preemptive war. This means strategically, they will engage in decapitation strikes attempting to cripple enemies before they can mobilize. Warehouses, granaries, camps, major roads, political leaders and so forth will be targeted first. At the strategic level, it seems likely that the eagles would primarily take a non interventionist platform. They would have diplomatic relations but no alliances with anyone. Instead, they would only engage in warfare under extreme conditions, such as severe threats to their survival. In a world where Sauron is seeking total domination, it seems inevitable that some wars will be fought with other powers. So, this is unlikely to be a total commitment.   When would we expect the eagles to take actions? Well first it would – in keeping with their non interventionist posture – probably be part of ad hoc coalitions that come together only for the duration of a specific crisis. The crisis will develop to this point when vital interests are threatened, such as a destruction of hunting grounds or nesting sites. They will probably engage in direct attacks against the threat as soon as they see it as a threat and before it can become a major problem. This is essentially the Wolfowitz doctrine stripped of its “America is and should protect its superpower status” elements.   Unilateralism is a key point and likely to carry over to the eagles as well. Ad hoc coalitions can be difficult to maintain – or even form – in a crisis. Yet just because your coalition is shaky or not yet form does not mean that the enemy forces have stopped moving. Eagles would probably thus have no problem striking out on their own when they feel threatened. They would then do this quickly with a form of shock and awe – seeking swift destruction of the enemy will to resist, command and control or the logistics needed to attack.   From real world policy we have the precedent of the Rumsfeld Doctrine. Its main thrust is reliance on airstrikes to compensate for low numbers of ground troops. The troops locate enemy forces that are then the target for the air power. Ground forces are kept as low as possible to do this job. We see this play out in the use of drone strikes and attempts to bomb Iraqi leadership in the opening of the 2003 invasion. The result from history shows that it can be quite effective at toppling regimes if one is willing to pay the cost in large civilian death tolls. It also fails to provide a replacement. But it does play to what the eagles have to work with.   Now, what would be a threat and what conditions exactly would the eagles decide to fight? I would argue following the Weinberger or Powell Doctrines. The first one states that one should not commit forces to combat unless the vital national interests of the state or its allies are involved. Troops should only be committed wholeheartedly and with the clear intention of winning and be committed only with clearly defined political and military objectives and with the capacity to accomplish those objectives. The commitment of troops should be considered only as a last resort. Powell adds to these that the risks and costs must be calculated, alternatives exhausted an exit plan developed. Parts talking about reassessing force make up is irrelevant for a race with only one type of unit. Support from Congress and the population is also irrelevant in a monarchy. But one can replace this last one with neighbors, as Powell does in requiring international support. The fact real life eagles do not mess with young eagles intruding on their territory and prefer to use postures to threaten their enemies – only attacking the worst offenders – we can expect that most of the Powell/Weinberger Doctrines to be the center point of great eagle policy.   The last major question is how does this impact the overall story? Surprisingly not too much. Lets start by looking at the Battle of Five Armies. In the build up to the battle, Smaug had been killed. That eliminated one of the biggest threats to the eagles. But, the mobilization of the goblins and wargs attempting to take the area could be a major threat to the eagles – especially given the wealth under the mountain. So, national interests were at stake, but the threats were not fully developed so making the intervention a preemptive strike. The eagles clearly were committed to victory and had a clear objective – keep the dwarves in control and the orcs out. The hundreds of eagles sent were the decisive, so clearly they had the capacity to accomplish their goals. The only problem is the battle took place a bit earlier than the normal combat season for the eagles, but that is a minor issue. Now, like the dwarves, eagles are more likely to form their ad hoc coalitions with the elves of Rivendell due to their mountain habitats. All dwarven kingdoms would make excellent temporary allies as well. Thorin’s interests are in clearing the Lonely Mountain of the enemies of the eagles and the Iron Mountains being the other major dwarven kingdom.   To me, there is also a chance of some form of diplomatic communications between the eagles and dwarves on a regular basis. But, it is likely to be rocky. The dwarves obviously would be interested in keeping the eagles happy so the dwarves can maintain a degree of protection against dragons. Meanwhile, eagles are not quite able to do much in the way of mining or metalworking, so their armor would have to be imported. Three guesses as to where they would import it from. However, the Rings of Power means that the dwarves collected such incredibly huge treasure hoards that dragon attacks become inevitable – which then threaten the eagles. So I wouldn’t imagine that the eagles would be too fond of the dwarves but would fight next to them due to common interests.   The rescue of Thorin and his crew can be seen as an extension of the same logic as the Battle of Five Armies. Gandalf’s rescue was by one eagle, so it seems hard to see that as a case of eagle foreign policy. The Black Gate was the same way – 6 eagles is hardly that much.   The big questions are instead regarding Helms Deep and Minas Tirith. To start this, we need to look at the elephant in the room – eagle food. Now, real life golden eagles require 8.1 to 8.8 oz of food per day for birds that average around 10 pounds. This means that the great eagles from Middle Earth would need 115.83 to 125.84 oz (about 7.2 to 8 pounds per day). Apparently, golden eagles can go for a week without eating then eat 2 pounds at a time. This means that the great eagles need to kill about 28.6 pounds every week to survive. This means that the 4,676 eagles estimated to live in Middle Earth would need between 6,954,147.2 and 13,423,510 pounds of food to survive. Those are rather large numbers and have the potential to have important impacts on their international relations as well.   This is due to the location of Rohan – known for its horses. Horses tend to vary widely in weight – between 840 and 1,320 for riding horses. Since Rohan seems to specialize in riding horses, this seems like a good range to focus on (draft horses that get up to 2,200 pounds seem unlikely in a society as nomadic as Rohan). Most riding horses are within the theoretical range for what the great eagles can carry. Rohan is also located at the intersection of the two mountain ranges I think the eagles would live in. This means that most of Rohan’s prized horses that form the basis of their culture could (and probably would) be food for eagles. So would humans, dwarves, orcs and elves honestly. But they would have greater abilities to defend themselves, so it is unlikely that they would be priories for eagle hunting.   I see one of two options arising out of this. First, Rohan would likely see the eagles as natural enemies and develop some means of defending their horses from them. Possibly even going so far as to hunt and kill them, thus provoking war between Rohan and eagles. This could end in a very interesting battle where the eagles bomb Edoras and Helm’s Deep. I would love to see that battle. But Rohan is also quite decentralized. Meaning that such attacks would not end the conflict. Low intensity and long running conflicts would probably result.   The second is some form of trade partnership. The herding skills and inclinations of a society already as into horses as Rohan’s people could easily be transferred to raising other livestock. Cattle, sheep and goats are common food animals used by nomadic pastoral societies. The Mongols - famous for their horse riding - also herded these other species. While this would have wider implications for Rohan – for our discussion here it means that Rohan would be able to produce animals for eagles to eat without any killing of their prized horses. It would also change the calculations regarding eagle interventions against Isengard.   Lets assume that no trade deal with Rohan is reached. The invasion by Isengard would be a problem, but as long as the attack doesn’t wipe out the horses, the eagles would be able to carry on. In a weird twist, the invasion might actually provoke the eagles into replacing the people raising the horses. Rohan defended from predators the horses so they can ride them – the eagles so they can eat them themselves. Once the humans are wiped out in Rohan, the eagles would then turn to killing hunting uruk hai so as to keep the horses for themselves.   But what happens if Rohan raises livestock to give to the eagles? Then the government of Rohan becomes a reliable source of food rather than an enemy. Isengard then represents a direct threat to the food security of the eagles. Defeating Isengard before it can go that far would become a national security priority for the eagles and they would move to destroy Isengard under the principles of unilateralism and preemptive war.   All of this together and I would expect the great eagles to take the massive retaliation position. Because preemptive war requires speed to be effective, mobilization means war and mobilizing would come as soon as said threat is detected. This, as one could already assume, meas they would take take a first strike posture. As they are more interested in stopping the threat, a counter force posture would be preferred. I would also not expect the sort of non interventionist policy of the eagles would set them up to pursue no secondary priorities.   Isengard and Mordor would be the only real threats and would probably seek to use brinksmanship to scare them away. The means of coercion, as one would expect by this point, would be how eagles seek to achieve international objectives? In terms of their alliances, they would seek to balance against their perceived threats. This means fighting with Rohan and the ents against Isengard and with Gondor against Mordor. Lothlorien would probably also be an ally in both wars. Both powers are more threatening because of the sizes of their armies rather than the quality. Orcs are better able to climb mountains. This gives them a qualitative edge in wars with eagles. So Isengard is much more of a threat due to attacking food supplies and its proximity. Mordor has a better ability to penetrate into eagle territory. Both have the historical precedents of aggression, the apparent motives, opportunities to attack. Mordor is more of a global threat seeking to attack all eagle territory. Isengard is more regional in that it only seeks to occupy part of the food supplying territory of the eagles. Granted, this still a major problem for them. Due to geographical factors, Isengard is the main short range threat while Mordor is more of a long-range issue. Both would be high-intensity and expanding. Both would be national, military ( though isengard would also be economic), lethal and traditional threats.   War fighting would probably aim at a limited war, low intensity conflict position. Border raids, special forces, decapitation strikes, guerrilla actions, commerce raiding and so forth would be the name of the game. Simply breaking the enemy's ability or willingness to attack them is all that is needed. Any more harm to the enemy would be seen as overkill. Similarly, they would act to preserve the status quo not to overthrow it.   Now, lets flip the threat calculations to see who they would ally themselves with. We know that the Eagles tend to prefer ad hoc coalitions in place of long term alliances. Which means any alliances would arise to meet specific threats then be allowed to lapse the second that threat disappears. So, we can expect Smaug to be the main active threat in The Hobbit. This would likely be followed up by the invading orc/warg army that follows the death of the dragon. Which means the eagles that live near the lonely mountain would form a temporary alliance during the Battle of Five Armies. Their local assistance provided over the course of Thorin's quest makes sense. As does them fighting with the dwarves and men of Laketown.   Once Isengard invades Rohan, they would probably form a temporary alliance with Rohan and the ents. They would probably be very resistant as a collective to attacking Mordor at first. After all, they would be eventually threatened by it. But once the anti-isengard coalition is formed, it would be easy to extend the logic to push for mobilization against Mordor. After all, Mordor's armies would not long be posing the same threat. Plus, the Ents and Rohan - the eagle's two other main partners against Isengard - would be mobilizing against Mordor as well. Plus the issue of Command Responsibility. Then, Gandalf and Ratagast have friendly relations with the eagles and are key figures in the White Council. This means two things. First, the White Council would be a temporary ally as well. Once the eagles are pushed to war against Mordor as discussed above, Gondor would become their main ally.