Elven Governments
Now, lets get into the nitty gritty of the elven governments for a second here. Seeing as how the elves do not have the large scale military power of the other major actors, it seems unlikely that they would use massive retaliation. Similarly, the asymmetric and covert actions they would be set up for make them perfect for a flexible response posture. It seems logical to me that a species defined by its immortality would also be quite patient. After all, they have time on their hands. Then there is the fact they require less food and have smaller military units. These mean that they can mobilize and keep their troops in the barracks for longer. So mobilization would not mean war. Also, as one could probably guess, the elves would not be too quick to mobilize. The hesitation to risk their people, flexible response posture and ethical distaste for combat seems to justify this position. But I suspect that the small, light infantry groups of their army would be able to mobilize at a rapid pace once that decision has been made.
Related to these are the likelihood of prioritizing diplomacy over brinkmanship. Though one could probably guess that based on the flexible response idea. After all, they would want to make sure that they don't scare the other side into thinking that war is closer than it really is. Through negotiations and a no strike/ flexible response posture, no one would be intimidated into war through the security dilemma. With their close contacts with local elites, I suspect that a habit of obedience would be how they seek to get their objectives met. Hence the value of soft power and the need for economics to allow for win-win arraignments. Should their peacekeeping and liberal interventionism work, this should not be hard. Their ideology sees negotiations and cooperation as both possible and valuable.
How they fight would also be much more limited than a lot of other Middle Earth governments. First off, their military organization and doctrine means a no strike posture. Because their full military might would only be mobilized in response to an all out invasion of their homeland and the leadership sees the enemy government as the real problem, I think the elves would take a counter force posture. Fighting on the homeland with a light infantry model essentially demands the use of a low intensity conflict posture.
Their secondary priorities appear to be the most diverse of all the major powers. They have an ideology that says that not just the elves but all people benefit from the expansion of their government style. Hence decisions would come from an ideological perspective. They also see that economic prosperity is one way to make sure other powers have no need to attack. So economic growth would be valued as a tool to secure international trade links which then can be used for win-win foreign policy deals. They also would be the main peacekeepers, as external stability is the first line of defense for the elves. This suggests that external stability is also valued by them.
At the broadest level, all elven states would prefer the status quo to undermining it. Yet again we come to the elves loving the idea of peacekeeping and external stability those missions providing. As a result, they would balance against any expansionist superpower. More stable, defensive ones would likely see the elves Bandwagon. This is essentially what happened in the wars with Sauron. Isengard is also an insurgent, destabilizing power like Mordor. Therefore, Isengard would be a state the elves would balance against. By this same logic, Moria and the Lonely Mountain would ironically be solid allies. As would Gondor and Rohan.
Public Agenda
Now, remember what I said earlier about them having a conservative set of social norms? Looking back on their rings, we see amplified powers of healing, restoration and resistance to evil. Also, the elves were also the most in contact with the Valar – the gods of Middle Earth. Evil came into the world due to those rebelling against the good Valar. It was these good valar that the elves retained loyalty to and from whom they gained their magical abilities. It would make sense that they would see themselves as the defenders of all that is beautiful, good and holy in the universe, the last bastion of hope against the coming evil. That actually gives us a pretty solid starting point for looking at the behaviors and goals of the elves.
It is also important to note that in the absence of strong military force and the use of allies as front line defenses, there has to be something besides simple military power to hold together alliances. I posit that soft power would be the main force for that. Essentially, this is the power to make people want to work with you. In international relations, this is based on the moral legitimacy of the state, the attractiveness of the culture, personal links and so forth. It grants the state with it the ability to co-opt, persuade and inspire the sort of action desired instead of relying on threats and bribes. The sheer beauty of Elven kingdoms, perceived wisdom of the elves, their crafting ability all grant them soft power. The powers granted to them by their Rings of Power also amplify soft power. Thus, the Free People of Middle Earth would essentially want to work with the elves because they respect and value their place in Middle Earth.
One way that this could be carried out in the context of the medieval technology of Middle Earth and very elite centered ideology of the states involved would be cultural exchanges and elite education. So, how would this be implemented by the elves? First, the art of the elves would be promoted as the pinnacle of aesthetics. Thus, it would become a status symbol for the elites of Middle Earth. Similarly, the perceptions of wisdom and connections to the Valar and wizards would mean that the works of philosophy the elves produce would become the center of and starting point of intellectual life. Thus, how elites see the world and how they define their roles would come from a place defined by the elves. Their long lives would also mean that their histories would be written by those who witnessed the events, even those thousands of years in the past. All of this put together would mean that high culture would be very elf-centric in the same way that the Enlightenment, Scientific Revolution, and Renaissance produced the culture dominant in the real world reinforcing local affinity for European nations even after decolonization.
Now, traditional liberalism posits that democratic regimes are the ones that promote peace. But this is Middle Earth – even the horses have kings. The ents, Northmen and hobbits are the only races with a democratic tradition and they operate on the fringes of Middle Earth’s political scene. So, we can assume that the goal of the elves would be more akin to their government style – enlightened absolute monarchy. So the elves would promote good governing in the context of monarchy. Popular opinion would be consulted and reforms taken that do not threaten the regime or disrupt the social order. Thus, healthcare, education and respect for due process and rule of law would be the foundation.
When full scale war is engaged in, the elves would take the liberal line that the regime itself is the problem, not the people. Thus, regime change would probably be the main goal. New constitutions would likely be imposed that ensure the rights of the citizens and free trade. War crimes trials can be expected to make sure that all those guilty of pushing war are permanently removed from power. But at the same time, the cultural – almost civilizing – mission would require an occupation to carry out nation building. To the elves, this would mean education for the masses, infrastructure construction to link the people together. Meanwhile, propaganda and the education system would aim to instill a civic nationalist model with respect for different ethnicities and valuing cooperation. The social engineering of the defeated nation would be conducted so that they do not push for war again. The occupation is to last as long as needed to accomplish this and integrate them into the liberal order.
History
Given their terrain advantages, they would likely take a position similar to Iran or Switzerland. Both nations rely on making attacks so costly that no power would risk invading. Hit and run tactics like the Gondorian rangers would be used to bleed the enemy forces. They would probably shy away from combat styles considered risky, thus preferring ranged attacks. Ranged attacks and ambushes would be ideal, adopting dwarven raid tactics to ranged weaponry. If the elves are weaker and/or lighter, then anything that could turn into endurance matches or battles of brute strength the elves would suffer. Thus, keeping the enemy at bay so that raw strength would not factor in would be needed. Hiding in the trees, leaping from one to the other, sniping enemies every step they take into the forest – invasion would be hard.
We need to look at how the elves fought as well. When they did engage in war, it appears to be mainly defensive. The most obvious of this is the War of Elves and Sauron. Here, Sauron's military might was at its strongest, but failed to corrupt the Elven Rings of Power. Torturing the crafter failed to get their location, so he went to war. The elves waged one of the most valiant rearguard actions, lasting 8 years as Sauron's forces devastated most of Middle Earth. While most of the elven territory was lost, major decisive battles could not be won. Too many troops had to be diverted away from key operations to deal with stubborn resistance in other areas. This meant that the Numenorians had time to send such a powerful army as reinforcements that Sauron's entire army was destroyed.
The Last Alliance was the next major conflict. Mordor attacked Gondor this time instead of the elves directly. He struck too soon however. While successful in taking Minas Morgul, he was halted at Osgiliath. This gave the men and elves time to muster their forces – taking a solid 5 years to recruit, train and arm the entire army. The siege outside the Black Gate took several months and Barad-Dur took 7 years of bitter fighting. This is notable in that Sauron's defeat cost him the One Ring. It is also notable in that he lost even with the One Ring.
Demography and Population
Now, the elves proved to be one of the hardest races to get population figures for, so I had to get a little creative in my reasoning and use of evidence here. During the War of the Last Alliance, the elves were able to muster quite a few troops. The Noldor and Sindar elves each mustered between 10,000 and 25,000 each – 20,000 to 50,000 total. Rivendel sent between 100 and 1,000. A separate force of elves that includes those from Lorien totaled between 20,000 and 50,000. We can assume then that the total force of elves at that time would be between 40,100 and 101,000 elves. During the War of Wrath (the conflict that defined the First Age of Middle Earth) two thirds of all elves were mobilized. Thus, we can assume that during the second age there was between 60,150 and 151,500 elves. In the War of Elves and Sauron, about 140,000 elves were engaged. But due to losses and those moving away to the undying lands, I would expect those to be much lower by the time of the War of the Ring. Unfortunately I am critically short on information needed to get precise counts though.The closest I get is an estimate that Lothlorien “must have been” home to several thousand elves.
Military
But when would full fledged war be used? Well, the immortality of the elves gives us some clues. The extremely brutal war against Morgoth in the First Age was devastating for the elves and victory was incomplete. Morgoth completely failed to reform and returned to unleash even more death and destruction. The incomplete victory over Morgoth saw the rise of Sauron, the persistence of dragons, Durin’s Bane and the continued threat of orc bands. Similar failures with Sauron saw three major wars, the fall of Númenor and the Witch King’s destruction of the western kingdoms of Men. There are elves that experienced all of these wars and saw in some cases their entire civilizations destroyed. So the pain and suffering was not some history book story – it was living memory.
Thus, they would first take the view that war is total and would seek unconditional surrender of their enemies to make sure that they never become a threat again. They would take a position similar to the Wolfowitz Doctrine I mentioned before. The relevant part here is the desire to prevent the rise of another power that resembles the scope of the the Soviet Union (or Morgoth in LOTR). Any potential new global power or rival would be seen as a threat. Anyone who gains control over a region whose resources or position, under consolidated control, would grant them global power could not be tolerated. Elves would have no problem waging war against a state that gains this position, as it would be seen as a monstrous evil and potent danger. The result is a neoconservative tint to the otherwise liberal outlook.
So, whenever there would be a big enough hostile threat or great opportunity, the elves would seek a coalition. These ad hoc arrangements are seen as temporary and based on the rational need to work together for the common purpose. Such as the destruction of the One Ring. The Fellowship was a coalition, organized at a meeting called by Elrond. It was a rational, temporary arrangement in response to a golden opportunity to finally destroy a great foe. For coalitions to be effective, such an overwhelming threat is needed to unite it. What is not surprising is that it was an elven head of state that called the Council of Elrond and the Fellowship was created. It is also not surprising that the son of the ruler of Mirkwood was also in the Fellowship. What was surprising is that the Council of Elrond did not produce some form of plan for mobilizing full scale armies to counter the rise of Mordor.
The basic commando model I think the elves use is perfectly suited to their biological and geographic advantages. There are downsides. These can be countered by using political means. The first is alliances. Should other states provide troops able to fill in gaps, this would go a long way to covering the tactical shortcomings of the elves. In this sense, alliances with the dwarves would be a solid idea to get the support of the best heavy infantry in Middle Earth. Rohan would be a great alliance as well for its cavalry. Ents and eagles are air and artillery powers. The result is a multi-ethnic army that is one of the better combined arms formations.
The other major tool is buck passing. Once this alliance structure takes root, the elves should step up their international assistance. Financial and material aid should be provided as much as possible. Then, the allied military should get as much technical and military training/advice as can be provided. The result is a collection of allies better able to bear the brunt of the attacks. The elves would then step in to plug the gaps instead of bearing the entire enemy onslaught themselves.
We have also already established that the elves would likely have some form of network that can be called on to fight as insurgents. This allows for covert attacks against an enemy via proxy groups. Thus, there is a fifth column already embedded inside the enemy territory. The existence of such forces can be used in a deterrence role or kept totally secret. After all, secrets have great power. When all out war breaks out, commando teams can be sent to aid them with training, intelligence, commanders or actually fighting with them.
But when the elves are forced into war, there has to be some model for how the state operates. The way I think the elves themselves fight is essentially a form of guerrilla warfare that is quite good at conserving one's strength. Thus making elves perfect for a Fabian strategy. Remember how I said that light infantry tactics are based on harassing the enemy while not fighting in heavy, direct combat? Fabian strategy applies that to the macro level. Essentially small scale attacks, raids, harassing actions and so forth are prioritized over winning decisive pitched battles. No single engagement is all that valuable, but each one saps the enemy manpower and morale, while supplies are lost and logistics disrupted. Essentially a war of attrition based on a thousand cuts.
The inability to pin the enemy down can have some profound impacts on the enemy. One is that they become desperate and thus rash. No commander can watch as a series of "minor" defeats bleeds him of their ability to fight. The result is stupidity that plays into the hands of the opposition. Another is the dispersal of forces. Any area not covered by the main army is a place the side employing the Fabian strategy can hide. By dispersing the forces, the commander can cover more ground and ideally deny their prey of hiding areas. This is also part of the logic behind atrocities against civilians and scorched earth tactics.
But dispersal also has a severe weakness. It must divide forces into smaller and smaller units inversely proportional to the size of the territory to be covered. The smaller the unit, the more of a viable target this unit becomes. Such actions make life so much easier for the side using hit and run tactics. Units are strengthened by the proximity to allies. Dispersal thus weakens them by robbing them of support. The Fabian strategy is thus perfect for baiting the enemy into exposing themselves to defeat in detail.
Once the dispersal occurs, it is simply a matter of finding and destroying isolated units until the enemy is whittled down to nothing. This allows the main elven forces to concentrate their forces. This grants huge advantages. While the enemy would have technically more soldiers, the elves would only be engaging in battles where they have local superiority at the tactical level. Thus, they are never outnumbered when it matters. The elven superiority in scouting and speed means that they would have the advantage in finding and destroying these units before relatively nearby enemies can respond. This can be compounded by the elves exploiting hostile terrain that would naturally break up enemy formations or slow communications or response times.
All of these together mean the elves fight in a way where security can peace can only come through negotiations and concessions. Pure military power is likely to be too costly in terms of both money and men to get their objectives. The battlefield defeat of the enemy is not technically really the objective here. Instead, the aim is to disrupt its operations to the point it can't function, overthrow the government or coerce it into giving in. The enemy is exhausted, morale drained and resources denied to them.
Foreign Relations
Now, this is Lord of the Rings. The political questions of who they would ally with and when they would go to war is essential for us to understand. As I stated elsewhere, it seems most likely that most wars would be the elves being attacked. Strong defensive actions and a high priority on alliances are key to elven war fighting. Major commitments of troops from the realms of men were critical in the defeats of Sauron in both the Second and Third Age. Meanwhile, the sheer tenacity and skill of elven troops and the wisdom of their leadership is what allowed the allied troops to arrive in the first place. So, foreign policy for the elves would probably consist of negotiating a network of military alliances, defense pacts, and ententes with their neighbors. Their foreign policy would involve the strategic use of diplomacy, persuasion, capacity building, and the projection of power and influence in ways that are cost-effective and have political and social legitimacy. Essentially this means the engagement of both military force and all forms of diplomacy.
So we have to balance the drive to be a positive force for good with high likelihood of winning and high costs to fighting ever. After all, troops are hard to replace and even enemy lives are valuable. Then, they would have the highest appreciation for alliances outside of possibly Gondor and Rohan. Issues would be seen through a black and white perspective influenced by an idea that everyone has a choice between good and evil. Good can be measured by its willingness to strongly resist evil. This will be almost religious in its tone. There are actually plenty of real world foreign policy positions that can help us navigate this.
In order to fully understand where the elves are coming from, we have to start getting into full fledged international relations theory. Most other actors in Middle Earth appear to adapt realism in some form or fashion. But the elves appear to operate from a position more akin to the IR theory version of liberalism.
This school of thought is practically a rejection of the sort of raw power and cynicism of the realist school of though. It actually says that states either do or should act in accordance with ethical guidelines. Because power politics is rejected, it is possible for absolute gains, win-win scenarios and cooperation are possibilities. Meanwhile, international organizations like the UN or subnational groups like NGOs can influence decision makers. It sees international trade, super national organizations and democratic regimes promote international peace. High value is placed on diplomacy. With rational actors in charge of states and interdependence imposing unacceptable costs for war, diplomacy can work. Also important is the priority placed on regime type. When the regimes are similar and rooted in human rights and peace, the citizens are less likely to see the citizens of the others as inherently hostile enemies. Due to this liberals do not see the anarchy on the international scene as a barrier to peace. It also states that mere force of arms is not enough to secure the stability of the international system.
We can see this expressed in the books and movies. The elves traded openly with the dwarves of Moria. Rivendel and Moria were the two kingdoms where the hatreds between the two races was less severe. Compare that to Mirkwood and the Lonely Mountain. They had much weaker economic ties and almost came to blows at the Battle of Five Armies and again at the Council of Elrond. It was also the elves that organized the one example I can find of an international diplomatic summit – again the Council of Elrond.
Remember the whole point about force is insufficient to promote peace and how trade and enlightened regimes play an important role? This starts to get to the conditions under which elves would go to war. The Liberal Internationalist perspective states that governments should intervene in other nation’s political life to promote liberal norms. By doing so, peace is promoted. The two factors that need to be promoted the most are economic interdependence (essentially eliminating protectionism) and enlightened government. I would expect the elves to take this sort of model, seeking to export their ideals to other nations so they become global policy. Hence the use of soft power to promote its ideals and subversive "active measures".
Peace in this model requires enlightened leadership, cultural understanding between parties and significant trade links. So, the self sufficient states of Isengard and Mordor are thus the most likely threats to the world order. They are also the states that completely reject the international norms that allow for dialogue to solve disputes. Neither of the antagonist great powers at the end of the third age follow the enlightened despot model either and actively use war and atrocities to spread their power.
Now, there are a few actual real life foreign policy doctrines that we can look at to give us a practical guide to how decisions would be made. First, we have the Clinton Doctrine. This position starts with the foundation that the nation using it cannot do everything for everyone. To figure out which of the small subset of all possible trouble areas to intervene in, it says there needs to be a strong national or humanitarian interest in doing so. The National Interest element is essentially a security issue – anything that affects the well being and character of the nation. Having a large economic stake, commitments to allies, threats to the global environment and things that threaten destabilization and severe refugee flows were all defined by Clinton as national interests. Humanitarian interests are where ethics demands action. Disaster relief, protection of human rights and promoting sustainable development were all examples given. Basically, when security and values are at stake and the nation has the power to solve the problem, it should be prepared to do so. This means working to stop conflicts from festering and spreading. Genocide is seen in and of itself as in the national interest.
The Nixon Doctrine fits well with the desire to preserve and protect vital interests in a multilateral context defined by the power in question not having infinite power. The basic tenants here is that the power employing this position would aid in the defense and development of its friends and allies, but would not shoulder the entire burden. This means that the local allies would be required to take care of most of their needs. But when major threats arise (say like a resurgent Mordor) the elves would step in to provide the needed aid. Thus, while most of the costs fall on the allies, significant threats will be deterred due to the possibility of elven intervention in the conflict. This requires the elves be vigorous in upholding all treaty obligations so that those that threaten the allies feel that the risk of war with the elves is credible. When direct intervention is not required, economic and logistical aid can be provided so long as the local forces do most of the actual front line fighting.
Criticism of the Nixon Doctrine hinges on the fact that it provided aid to local autocrats that did not provide a solid foundation for regional security. However, scholars have noted that it would have worked a lot better should the focus be on those with greater independent financial abilities to cover their own defense and a respect for human rights. This is much more in line with what the elves would be inclined to follow. The result is a convergence of interests between the humanitarian and national interests described in the Clinton Doctrine. Also important is the balance between elven power, local initiative and regional interests.
Next, I see what is described as the Obama Doctrine being relevant. This position rejects unilateralism and prefers negotiating a solution to conflicts. Or at least getting a coalition in favor of action. It also involved covert actions against specific people seen as enemies instead of full fledged military actions. The main thrust is a willingness to use unilateral action in crisis and when core interests are at stake. But the far more frequent indirect, less threatening and humanitarian missions require mobilize partners for collective actions. In Libya and Yemen, this meant local allies doing the majority of the fighting while the American military provides support – such as airstrikes, logistical aid and intelligence. I can see this as being a useful model for the elves.
Meanwhile useless fighting would be avoided to prevent the weakening of forces for more important battles. Therefore, there would be no fear in using force, but a realization of the limits of elven power. Essentially even with great raw power, the elves are just one part of the political landscape and they would recognize that the other powers would be needed to secure peace. The coalition centered outlook would produce a mindset where common security and prosperity would be seen as an objective. Rogue states that threaten the collective security of Middle Earth, such as Isengard or Mordor would be natural targets. Otherwise, states would be treated with an even hand, fairly and without attempted blackmail.
Now, it is unlikely that the elves would want to see all out war ever arise anywhere in Middle Earth, as they would suffer the most. Thus, they would be the most prolific in two sets of policies aimed at minimizing the sources of conflicts. The first and most obvious is peacekeeping operations. Part of this would be mediation. Whenever there is a militarized international dispute, the elves could be more vigorous than most in attempting to negotiate a solution. This can range from setting up a neutral meeting area, running fact finding missions or truth and reconciliation commissions, shuttle diplomacy and other options. Due to the cultural exchanges and soft power the Elves would have developed as discussed above, this seems like a policy the Elves would be quite well suited for.
Then there is the more traditional peacekeeper role that is rooted in enforcing the peace. Troops are deployed to the area to literally separate each side. Ideally, they would have the power to monitor both sides to see if they are holding their sides of the deal. Just as important would be the ability to punish spoilers.
Humanitarian aid and possibly development aid would then be the next major policy. The basic idea here is that a material crisis can cause a security crisis as well. Elves it seems would genuinely feel the moral need to supply aid in cases of natural disasters. But there is also the reality that refugees and poverty on a large enough scale can lead to destabilization. By using their wealth, the elves can step in to prevent excess suffering. This would not just undercut the sources of conflict that can spill across borders, but also increase soft power. Thus the alliances needed by the elves can be secured.
Andrew Phillips, "The challenges of order-building in the Indian Ocean Region," The Strategist (October 2012).
Walter C. Ladwig III, "A Neo-Nixon Doctrine for the Indian Ocean: Helping States Help Themselves," Strategic Analysis, Vol. 36, No. 3 (May 2012).
So, war fighting seems like a bad idea for the elves. Their military power is admittedly quite solid. But that is based on the sheer skill of each soldier, the quality of their equipment and the power derived from their geographic position. They simply do not have the numbers of significant operations. The result is it is not a good idea for them to engage unless they need to. But there are plenty of contexts in which one would need to take some actions. The Russian idea of Active measures might prove useful in this context.
Active measures are essentially the dirty tricks we associate with intelligence services. The first major one is the support for rebel groups operating inside the enemy or who would disrupt the enemy's operations. We know that the White Council, made up of major elven leaders, is well placed to do this. After all, Aragorn leads a group of rangers that could be quite effective in this role. The idea here is that financial, medical, training and logistical aid would be provided to groups that would operate behind enemy lines. This would at best defeat the enemy for the elves. At worst it would make life easier for the elves when they have to take over fighting.
The second major tool is straight up assassination of important leaders. Again, there is precedent in lord of the Rings - the decision to destroy the One Ring can be seen as an assassination of a political leader in an attempt to avoid war. Other related options would be coups aiming to replace hostile leaders with friendlier ones already inside the target government. Spreading propaganda to fragment the enemy political leadership, provoke internal revolts or support allied rebel groups would also fit into this paradigm.
Basically - subversion of the targeted political system. The goal is to reduce loyalty to the government in question. Most frequently this is done via some form of propaganda operation. Such as leafletting campaigns or newspaper stories aiming to challenge pro-government narratives. This should produce defections from within the enemy military, strikes and mutinies in important formations or sectors of the economy. Or the population would fail to mobilize when called to war, revolt or not resist invasion. Basically, anything that attempts to undermine the economic or military strength and/or morale and loyalty of the armed forces or public is subversive. Typically, this is done by sowing distrust between the military and public on one side and the government on the other. Increasing discord between different groups within a society would work as well.
Espionage is an important part of this tactic. Ideally, local agents are recruited to act on the orders of the elves. These would infiltrate the vital organizations and act in a covert manner until the ideal time to strike. In the meantime, actions like reluctant and slow compliance, disobedience in absence of direct supervision and disguised disobedience by these agents can be powerful tools in reducing the effectiveness of the targeted institutions. As does selective refusal of assistance by government aides, blocking of lines of command and information, stalling and obstruction, general administrative noncooperation, deliberate inefficiency and selective noncooperation by enforcement agents, quasi-legal evasions and delays and noncooperation by constituent governmental units. But so too is deliberate misinformation and criminality. Intentionally, wasting resources, pushing for bad decisions, theft of resources, embarrassing leaks and so forth. The goal here is to discredit, disarm and demoralize the target.
Setting up front groups is often part of this too. Often, the control over media and political parties are prioritized as well. This is where propaganda becomes vital. These front groups cannot be effective without some key support within the targeted society. The funds and assistance from the elves would be key, as would their ability to follow their orders. But if the front groups do not appeal to the domestic society, they will fail. This means the front groups need to appear to be a legitimate and acceptable alternative to the status quo. This means exploiting existing grievances and differences would be an important tactic. It is also possible for these groups to conduct espionage, sabotage, clandestine and covert resistance activities and even open revolt in coordination with external attacks.
This is so much easier to do when the targeted front group is of local origin that is taken over by agents. This would mean the group already has a solid foundation of popular support. From there it is just a matter of getting the right people into key jobs and convincing the leadership that the elves are essential to the group's objectives getting met. With key people in important roles and a proper sales pitch so the group takes direction and material assistance, the takeover is essentially complete. In this way, the weaknesses of the government and the grievances people have with that government are exploited to the advantage of the elves should soft power and negotiations fail.
Finding and promoting useful idiots and dupes to solidify control is important as well - as these people do not recognize how their actions benefit an external power. The result is they can be cynically be manipulated into furthering a cause they do not realize. Or their objectives and motives align so that their honest and not subversive goals can be turned to the advantage of the elves without their awareness of that.
One more unethical but also effective applications of these agents is as agent provocateurs. The idea is that these people first gain the trust of the target. Then, they take advantage of this to provoke the target into rash, embarrassing, immoral or criminal actions. This then justifies actions by the sponsoring agency on terms that benefit it. Generally, if the role of the agent is properly concealed, it also discredits the target domestically as well. Possibly to the point that a legitimacy crisis unfolds. Getting international partners (like how I think the elves would prefer to operate) would be aided as well.
The Obama Administration also introduced the “Yemen Model”, named after the policies employed in that nation. The idea here is the elves would recruit local proxy forces, such as local militias or tribal groups. These would be provided with weaponry, logistics, money, sometimes training and intelligence. These groups would do most of the fighting, like above. Then, high value targets, such as enemy leaders, would be assassinated. Aid to the local government would also be provided. The aid to the government often buy permission to operate in the area and the local proxies become the main ground forces. Little to no elves would be needed.
Trade & Transport
Now, we see that the elves control an important pass through the Misty Mountains. Both Lothlorien and Mirkwood are either important trade routs are close to them. They might be the only society that can rival the wealth of the dwarves. Given this and their reluctance to fight would suggest international economic sanctions would be a priority.
Education
In the real world, we see Ivy League schools, classical curriculum and “Grand Tours” abroad seen as part of elite education and part of becoming or staying part of the elites. This is in part due to elites forming a tight personal network that if you do not conform to their elite norms and values, people are excluded. A small number of boarding schools in England apparently produced most of British Prime Ministers and local elites in the colonies sent their children to study in England as well. Russia was famous for its suppressing of local language, requiring Russian for people to advance politically and economically and the the use of state religion.
This would have important implications. First, the most elite schools in all of Middle Earth would be those run by the elves given their expected cultural dominance. This would apply not just to the arts, but also all elite education and even military academies. Such a system would mean that the elven canon would inform the local artistic development of the Free Peoples of Middle Earth. Elites would probably speak one of the elvish languages, Quenya and Sindarin being the most famous. If history would be any indication, they might even use these as their primary language and speak them better than their local language. Many Russian elites during the Tzars ironically spoke German or French better than Russian. A similar phenomenon occurred in England just after the Norman Conquest (elites speaking French with English the language of the masses).
At first, this would have limited effects. After all, one generation of a family would not change an entire culture and create lasting elvish influence. However, if the same elite families retain power and each generation would have the same elvish teachers and boarding school education, the story would be different. Two elements would make this profoundly more powerful. First, the immorality of the elves means that families would see their education as resting on single elves seemingly from the beginning of time. So, not just the same general curriculum and values would be taught, but the same individuals would be teaching every generation of the same families. The power of that cannot be overstated. The second is the isolation of the students. Due to poor communications and slow transportation in a medieval world, study abroad arraignments would almost totally separate children from their native culture. Add in the fact that education is explicitly meant to shape students and impacts of environment are much stronger when a child. We can expect that elven culture would be the main cultural influence of the elites in other nations.
I mentioned before the military application of this system. The US is known for its use of technical advisers to other nations to provide training and advise to allied forces. The School of the Americas is an American run facility to teach military officers from other nations. Especially in the period between the 18th century and the end of the Napoleonic Wars, military officers would serve in other nation's armed forces. It was also common to hire engineers from other nations to design and lead the construction of fortifications. The American Third System of forts was designed by a French engineer. The Elves have far superior technical skills and literally thousands of years of experience in fighting against Morgoth and Sauron. Thus, it would make sense that they would also be in demand as technical advisers and members of other state’s general staff and war colleges. Meanwhile, those military men with ambition would seek to go learn directly from the elves by serving in their military or attending their war academies. It must be noted that only in the period between the Napoleonic Wars and WW1 did institutions like general staffs and war colleges became common. But, the intellectual nature of the elves means that we can expect the elves to be the only nation to have them if they exist at all.
The result is important. There should result naturally from this a network of Fellow Travelers and agents of influence. The former is a term that means those that are sympathetic to the other power, acts on their behalf, but is not technically a formal agent of or member of any of their official organizations. In the case of the Soviet Union, the term was applied to artists and intellectuals that shape culture.
Agents of influence are a little more complicated. But their influence will likely be more pronounced. There are those that are directly recruited by the power in question, but others too that consciously collaborate but do not get actively recruited or controlled. The education system is far more likely to produce the latter. But it is entirely possible that the elven governments would use their contacts to turn the more informal type into the ones they directly control in the case of a crisis. Essentially, they manipulate public opinion by acting as a credible local voice to the interests of (in our context) the elves. For this reason direct control would normally be a bad idea as it risked undermining the public appearance of independence. But through soft power and specifically the education system, the elves can create agents of influence whose values, motives and interests naturally align with the elves, so direct control would not be needed.
Richard H. Shultz and Roy Godson, Dezinformatsia: Active Measures in Soviet Strategy (New York: Pergamon-Brassey's, 1984), pg. 132-133.
Robert K. George, An Historical Investigation of Soviet Strategic Deception, report no. 87-0955 (Maxwell AFB: Air Command and Staff College, 1987), pg. 33.
Government System
Monarchy, Absolute
Power Structure
Unitary state
Controlled Territories
Related Items
Remove these ads. Join the Worldbuilders Guild
Comments