2050-9-24 Field Report

From: NuvoPharm Field Team
To: Global Health Council
cc: Autogenomic Labs; EnterLabs; Prestone County
Prestone County Supervisors; Lowden County Health;

RE: Prestone County Stats

The situation in Prestone County has progressed very rapidly, and unfortunately, for the worse. The following are the latest statistics:

Prestone County:

  Population: 48,736

  Infections: 15,596 (32%)

  Deaths: 1562 (10%)

  Hospital Capacity: 0%

  ICU Beds Available: 0


 
  Of the infections shown above, the vast majority have been identified in the last week. The protest event from earlier this month appears to have been a source of the vast majority initially, but the virus has since spread to others not involved in the protest.
  Lowden County:

  Population: 55,274

  Infections: 110 ( <1%)

  Deaths: 12 (10.9%)

  Hospital Capacity: 20% Available (55 of 275 available)

  ICU Beds Available: 17%

 
  Lowden County is beginning to see the symptoms and severity of cases increase in a dramatic fashion. Again, these cases are likely tied to the protests, but in Lowden County we are seeing many cases (12%, 13 cases) that had no direct connection to the protests. This means that either the patients are submitting false information, or there is a vector that had not yet been traced. If the latter is the case, as we believe, this has dire consequences. This individual or set of individuals may have spread the virus unknowingly, and those that they infected have themselves spread the virus.

Growth of the virus in general is likely to be exponential. Right now, we are seeing an R₀ value of between 6.2 and 9.5. This means for every infection, we believe we can expect a transmission to 6.2 to 9.5 additional patients. These are very frightening numbers. If we cannot control the possible vectors for transmission, this can overtake a populace in a matter of thee to four weeks.

Based on the low value, R₀-6.2, we see deaths starting to really ramp up in the next week. Given that there is a two week lag between infection and symptoms, we believe we will see deaths hit triple digits per week in Lowden by the middle of October. The situation in Prestone is much more dire. Without their cooperation, and with nearly 15,600 infections currently, we expect to see virtually the entire town showing positive within the week, as well as another 10,000 deaths in that time frame. They already cannot care for those in the county who have fallen ill, and of those who have tested positive, the vast majority have not yet exhibited symptoms.

All counties surrounding Lowden and Prestone should be on high alert and begin pandemic protection measures. We believe that this virus, if uncontained, could reach the R₀-9 threshold. And at that stage, the entire world will be fighting off infections and death with dire results.