Second Middle-Eastern War
Military action
The end of fossil fuels shatters the fragile peace of the Middle East, causing another great war.
Green Crash and the sudden drop of demand for fossil fuels (with no hopes of it changing for the better) decimated the Middle East. Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and UAE essentially cease to exist as organized countries, falling into barbarism and warlordism. Iran follows in its wake soon after. This leads to a violent end of any sort of political stability in the area.
Turkey pushes southward again and essentially annexes or vassalizes most of Syria and Iraq by 2045, however its victory is pyrrhic. It's casualties and war exhaustion led to a failed military coup, that in turns leads to a Turkish Civil War. It loses the territory it conquered, and what's worse, the Socialist Republic of Greece seized the control of the straits (and renames certain certain city back into a Constantinople). Syria is back as independent country. Both the Second Middle-Eastern War and the Turkish Civil War last until 2051, however. The end result is the whole region being politically rearranged.
The end result of the chaos is the rise of United Shia Republic (Iran and the Shia parts of Iraq), Islamic Caliphate (Arabian peninsula, Sunni Iraq save for north-western bits), the revanchist Turkey that shrank notably during the war, the independent Kurdistan (that ate a significant pat of Turkey, northeastern Syria and northwestern Iraq) and the bloc centered around Israel (that essentially vassalized - by force or not - Lebanon and Jordan). Parts of Syria that remain independent are essentially a buffer state.